A lot has been made of this year’s quarterback class. It seems that after the extremely meager 2022 QB class, fans became desperate to land a more sure-fire prospect. For much of the last two seasons there has been a QB1a and QB1b in the public eye. The two names that most enamored fans were Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s CJ Stroud. In truth, I think the desperation many fans have for a quality QB has caused fans to inflate the ability and NFL potential of these two, more so however with CJ Stroud. We’re only about a year-and-a-half removed from NFL fans scoffing at the thought of taking now Patriots QB Mac Jones in the top ten citing a lack of elite traits and a stellar supporting cast that amplified him. While many, including me, saw a long-term starter floor in Jones nobody saw elite upside, and as you know, you draft QBs for their upside.

 High floors don’t win Super Bowls. But something strange is happening when it comes to CJ Stroud discourse that has left me feeling as though I’m in Bizarro World. The same things that brought Mac Jones’ stock down: lack of elite arm talent, suboptimal mobility, an offense loaded with future stars at WR and a scheme that is extremely cfb QB friendly, are being seemingly ignored in Stroud. I mean sure, Stroud is accurate, but so was Jones. I also tend to consider QB accuracy—which is usually pulled from completion percentage–less when looking at QBs given the lower quality of coverage and unique-to-college, often gimmicky, pass-friendly schemes. In short, it is easy to be accurate when you’re throwing to multiple future NFL receivers who regularly have 5-15 yards of separation. How different are Stroud and Jones really? In my opinion, not very, and thus taking Stroud top 5 would be a mistake.

 Ok, so Stroud isn’t the solution, so who is? Enter Anthony Richardson. Casuals might say “who?” and know-nothing fans that have at least watched a few games will probably tell you he sucks. But Anthony Richardson is a name you should know because he is, at worst, the 2^nd best QB prospect in this year’s draft. Anthony Richardson is an acquired taste, his decisions can be grossly erratic, he makes some questionable throws and is generally unrefined. But now let me outline the positives of Anthony’s profile. He has one of the best arms in the class, if not the best, he is extremely mobile and is legitimately a dual-threat, with a  tight end-esque frame. Now if you thought I just described Josh Allen I wouldn’t be mad at you, the similarities are very apparent. Much like Josh Allen, Anthony is already being cast aside as too raw, someone who is a multi-year project and not worth the high first draft capital. Now I’m not saying Anthony is the next Josh Allen, but I’m also not ruling it out either. Not only do I see tremendous long-term upside in Anthony, I think he could be a fairly impactful player early in his career.

 Anthony Richardson has a stigma around him that he is the least pro-ready QB among the big names, I think that is a false and mistaken idea. Now, let’s dive deeper into why I’m so in love with Anthony Richardson as a prospect. Let’s start with frame and physical makeup. Anthony stands at 6’4 weighing around 240 lbs. He’s reported to have run a sub-4.5 second 40 yard dash, which is blazing speed for someone that size. Not only is he big, but he has the strength to go with it. Richardson has squatted over 500 pounds during the offseason. As far as weightlifting QBs go, only Eagles QB Jalen Hurts comes to mind, and he’s been tremendously successful in the league as a mobile QB that can regularly eat hits. Richardson is more than a frame or a runner, his arm is as good as it gets. The tape shows a QB that delivers balls with a lot of zip and a tight spiral coming from one of the quicker releases in the class. Maybe not Will Levis quick, but it’s quick. His mobility allows him to make throws on the move with relative ease. He’s comfortable on the bootleg in game and can make any throw on the field. Let’s look at some more advanced numbers too. In a Twitter post user @ilananalytics broke down pressure to sack rate for the top 4 QBs in the class, a stat that tends to translate very well from college to the NFL. Richardson’s pressure to sack rate was 9.2% while Young’s and Stroud’s were 12.6% and 14.1% respectively. Sack avoidance isn’t everything, but it certainly is something and bodes extremely well for his ability to extend plays at the next level which, given his size, speed, and arm, could make for a truly elite QB.

Now let’s review some film. The arm talent and athleticism jump off the screen. He made some truly jaw-dropping plays with his arm and legs in Florida’s game against LSU. One such throw was where he faked the handoff, rolling to his right. He stepped up in the pocket and delivered a 60 yard bomb hitting his receiver perfectly in stride for a touchdown. In that very same game, he took a scramble 80 yards to the house making LSU defenders miss with twitchy cuts while other defenders melt off his frame. If he didn’t make you miss on that play, he ran through you. While it wasn’t Anthony’s most statistically prolific game, finishing with just 185 yards on 60% completion, I couldn’t help but dream of what Anthony could do in the future. Another throw that Richardson made that I found to be downright ridiculous came against Tennessee where he flicked a ball 30 yards to the sideline into a tight window. He flashes legit NFL ball placement for a guy that is usually deemed as wildly inaccurate. 

Anthony produces some of the best highlight plays seen from a QB prospect since Lamar Jackson but, like anything, Mr. Richardson isn’t perfect. I’d be lying if I said that his red flags, while overblown, didn’t have some merit. He doesn’t have great anticipation. That throw against Tennessee I just mentioned, albeit great, was only made because he didn’t see a more open deep post that could’ve gone for at least 30 more yards if not a TD. While his release is quick and he has the legs to extend plays, he tends to hold onto the ball longer than he should. Maybe he trusts his tools too much, maybe he doesn’t see the field very well, maybe both. His footwork can get sloppy at times which causes too many throws to be off target. He also has a habit of throwing off his back foot leading him to deliver balls only with his arm, further sacrificing accuracy.

 A lot of his woes boil down to inexperience, at least I hope so. He’s just 21 years old and was a first-year starter last year so his processing of defenses and blitzes will likely improve as he experiences it more in game situations with NFL coaching. Like Mahomes, I expect his footwork and stride to get cleaned up as well. Like Josh Allen, who Richardson is drafted by will be massive for his development. So, who should take Anthony? A lot of teams are hunting a QB this offseason. The Raiders, Texans, Panthers, Falcons, Lions, Colts, Commanders, Jets, Saints, Seahawks, Bucs, and Titans could be looking to invest in QB come draft day. Though, not all of these teams are good fits for Anthony. The Jets, Raiders, Commanders, and Titans all probably think they can compete for a playoff spot next year if they get a floor-raising QB and probably won’t want to wait on Anthony to develop. The 3 teams that I think make genuine sense are the Lions, Falcons, and Seahawks. The Lions have a good young position player core in Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’andre Swift and Jameson Williams that would give Richardson assets that he could grow with. They also have a talented line that could help protect Richardson and give him the pocket to make throws. They were also able to get a ton of production from Jared Goff which could be a sign that the offense could explode with a talent like Richardson steering the ship. It gives Anthony a good bridge QB that doesn’t force them to shoehorn Anthony in day 1.

 The Falcons are a bit different, they aren’t as close to success as Detroit, but given the relative competitiveness of an Offense led by Marcus Mariota and a pair of nobody RBs I think Arthur Smith and company could produce a high-end QB out of Anthony like the Bills did with Josh Allen. The Falcons, being a few years away from being good, could give Richardson the time and security to develop at his own pace and grow with the young weapons on that offense like Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The Falcons also ran a run-heavy offense that would lend itself to Richardson’s mobility.

Lastly, the Seahawks. Much like Detroit, Seattle is in a sort of Goldilocks zone for a QB prospect. The Seahawks have established weapons in Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Kenneth Walker III and a slew of talented TEs. The team also invested 2 of their first 3 picks last year in tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas giving any QB serious protection for the next decade if all goes well. Just like Detroit, Seattle has a decent bridge in place with Geno Smith who led a storybook season all the way to the playoffs. Seattle also has a ton of draft capital, like Detroit, that will allow them to construct a really talented roster around Richardson at QB to mimic what they did with the Russell Wilson-Legion of Boom era Seahawks that brought a Super Bowl to the Emerald city. 

In general, Anthony Richardson needs a stable home that allows him to grow into his tools. I think that if he goes to a team that truly trusts his upside and allows him to develop at his pace, he could become one of the premier passers in football. Anthony Richardson is a boom or bust guy, so what pick should a team take him? I’m obviously bullish on his potential, but he has a lot of industry helium right now and has become a name mentioned more in the late first round. I foresee the hype around Richardson only growing between now and draft day. I think he would 100% be worth a mid-first round pick but I also wouldn’t be surprised if a team, like Atlanta, talks themselves into him as a top 10 pick. In all, no QB in this class has more upside than Richardson, no QB can move like him, and only Levis has a comparable arm. Just like Josh Allen, don’t let the inconsistencies distract from what he could become. A lot will say taking Anthony Richardson top 10 is crazy but let him develop and he’ll be a pro-bowler. Anthony Richardson has a lot of the positive traits that Stroud lacks and if your team is serious about having an elite franchise QB for the next 15 years, you should be all-in on Anthony Richardson.